Wolves vs Aston Villa: Over 2.5 @1.90
Despite their good form in recent matches, which involves three wins in their last five games in all competitions, and decent performances in losses against Manchester City and Liverpool, Aston Villa have continued to show they aren’t too keen on keeping it tight defensively.
Wolves have been in better form – defensively – but haven’t been keeping it tight at the back either, conceding in each of their last three Premier League appearances.
Sunday’s Midlands derby will showcase two sides susceptible to conceding, and almost locked in to conceding a goal.
But while there have been over 2.5 goals scored in Aston Villa’s last six games, the last six games for Wolves have been under 2.5 goals. So what gives?
Well, you get 1.90 for the over and 1.88 for the under. Why not go big?
Barry Town vs Connah’s Quay: Barry Town Double Chance @1.53
The reliable Barry Town finally lost their first game of the season last weekend, falling 4-1 away at Caernarfon. That loss and Connah’s Quay’s 1-1 draw against The New Saints meant Barry Town were relegated to second place on goals difference
And now they have to fight. And there could hardly be a better side to fight against than new league leaders Connah’s Quay.
Connah’s are the bookmakers’ favourite to take this one, but Barry Town haven’t lost at home in all competitions this season. Barry have been solid at home, winning four and draw two while keeping four clean sheets.
The 1.53 on offer for Barry Town keeping up their unbeaten home run looks like a decent punt. Even more so now with so much at stake.
Sampdoria vs Atalanta: Away team Over 1.5 @1.70
In Serie A, free-flowing, nearly unstoppable Atalanta travel to struggling Sampdoria hoping to bounce back from their disappointing home loss to Cagliari last weekend.
The only way I Nerazzurri know how to bounce back is with goals. Gasperini’s men have painted Serie A with goals this season, and are currently the league’s leading scorers with 30 goals.
While their home form has been questionable at times, Atalanta have been ferocious on their travels, staying unbeaten on their six trips, and scoring at least twice in all of those games.
Sampdoria, third from bottom, are fighting the drop already after just over 10 games. They’ve not been helped by a shabby home form where they’ve won only once and conceded three goals twice in five games.
Claudio Ranieri’s Sampdoria have the fourth worst defence in the league so far, shipping in 19 goals [in 11 games]. Atalanta will be waiting to exploit that, and they could hurt the home team really bad.
Real Sociedad vs Leganes: Real Sociedad win @1.70
There’s a bit at stake when Real Sociedad host Leganes on Friday evening. A win for the hosts and they shoot past Real Madrid and Barcelona to the top of La Liga.
If Real Sociedad could handpick an opponent to play, it would most definitely be a Leganes side that have lost 5 of their last 6 away matches. Not only do Leganes not travel well, they don’t play well either – even at home.
So here, we have a La Real side that have won three of their five home games against a side that have won only once in the league this season and have picked up just the single point on their travels, yet you get 1.70 to back a home win.
Value bets don’t come better than this.
Nantes – St. Etienne: Under 2.5
When two of the lowest scoring sides in Ligue 1 go head to head, expect a dearth of goals.
Nantes, despite sitting as high as third position in the table, have scored more than only two sides in the league. But they’ve also been in a poor run of form, failing to score in their last three Ligue 1 matches, which they all lost.
There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Nantes’s last 7 home games. They don’t concede much either.
St. Etienne are on a better run of form; unbeaten in their last five in the league, but four of those matches have seen under 2.5 goals as well.
BONUS: Liverpool vs Manchester City: Liverpool win or draw @1.47
Liverpool’s emphatic home form takes a big test this weekend as Premier League champions come visiting.
The Reds are undefeated in their last 43 home matches and proven to be nearly indestructible at Anfield.
And so the bookmakers have offered a generous 1.47 for a double chance. It’s a huge one, but it may be worth it.