Manchester City vs Aston Villa: Over 1.5 HT @1.63
Manchester City’s home loss to Wolves was a huge shock. Not only were the Citizen’s condemned to a rare home loss; it was also a game in which Pep Guardiola’s men failed to register a first half goal, or score at all for that matter.
They’ve dusted themselves up since then, beating Crystal Palace [2-0] and Atalanta [5-1]. City bounce back better than a superball, and now, with Liverpool’s lead down to just six, they certainly smell blood, and a chance to get the deficit down to three before the Reds big game against Spurs.
Manchester City’s games often come to life very quickly. Of their nine Premier League matches this season, only that loss to Nuno Espirito’s Wolves and their opening day 5-0 win over West Ham didn’t have at least two first half goals.
Villa don’t hold back either. On their own, they’ve scored at least one first half goal in all of their last five games in all competitions. They don’t mind an early start too.
If Manchester City go for it as expected, and Villa play their part, two first half goals don’t seem farfetched. In fact, it may be a pretty shrewd punt.
Villarreal vs Alaves: Villarreal win or draw + over 2.5 goals @2.18
Villarreal have been a pleasant surprise in La Liga this season. They’ve been so good this season, one may argue they should be doing better than their current 7th position. When they play Alaves on Friday night to start the Matchday 10 schedule, they will have a chance to move up the table to 3rd place – just behind Real Madrid and Barcelona [who don’t play this weekend].
Alaves themselves aren’t doing badly. They’ve put up back to back wins in their last two home games to get back into mid table after a really shaky start to the season. It is away from home that they are yet to get things right. They’ve lost three out of four on their travels this season.
In contrast, Villarreal are unbeaten in their last nine matches at the Estadio de la Cerámica, stretching back to last season.
Villarreal seem certain to avoid defeat at home against poor travellers Alaves, and with their goalscoring record [2nd most home goals and 2nd most goals overall in the league], I reckon there could be a few goals in this too.
There’s been at least three goals in the last five matches between both sides. Let’s keep the run, please?
PSG vs Marseille: PSG win HT & FT @ 1.66
Le Classique has been anything but classic in recent years. PSG have been dominant. They’ve won 16 of the last 18 matches in what is supposed to be a grudge match. These days, Marseille will be glad to even get a draw in this fixture.
On Sunday, PSG host their eternal rivals, coming off a 5-0 demolition of Club Brugge; with 13 goals in their last three games, but even more importantly with Kylian Mbappe back and firing.
A PSG win seems very obvious here, but 1.24 doesn’t look like a lot of value. 1.66 isn’t bad though, and with PSG hitting good form lately and managing to win at HT & FT in their last three matches in all competition, this may be a decent pick.
PSV Eindhoven vs AZ Alkmaar: PSV win @1.80
Last weekend, PSV found themselves in a huge mess. A 3-0 loss, with two players getting sent off was embarrassing to say the least. This weekend, they are back at home, where they are often very dominant.
If any team knows of that dominance, it’s their opponents on Sunday AZ Alkmaar. PSV have beaten Arne Slot’s side in all of their last 10 games at the Philips Stadium.
Both teams come into the game in contrasting forms after Thursday night’s Europa League action where PSV could only draw, but AZ Alkmaar got a resounding 6-0 win against Astana.
But this is the league; where PSV have won 20 of their last 22 home games, and seem to have their visitors’ number.
If you want to go bigger than this, you may consider a combo with goals. PSV, themselves, have scored at least 3 goals in 6 of their last 7 home matches in Eredivisie. You can get a decent 2.10 if you go with a PSV home win + over 1.5. The other game, against Ajax, was over 1.5 as well.
Schalke 04 vs Borrusia Dortmund: Over 2.5 @1.72
The Revierderby will attract a lot of attention across the world this weekend. Dortmund take the short trip to Gelsenkirchen to face rivals Schalke 04 with just a point separating both sides. Dortmund on 15 points and Schalke on 14.
The derby is often very unpredictable regardless of who’s playing at home [the away side came out victorious in their meetings last season], but it hardly ever is short of goals.
Three of the last four instalments have seen at least three goals, with both sides scoring in those three games.
Neither side boasts a particularly strong defence, with just two clean sheets each after eight games this season, but Dortmund have been comparatively worse, especially on their travels, where they’ve shipped in at least 2 goals in their last 3 matches.
In addition, just one Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga game has seen less than three goals so far this season. Over 2.5 @1.72 seems a giveaway in a Borussia Dortmund game, let alone in a derby.
BONUS: Robert Lewandowski to score at anytime @1.30
You still get a cool 1.30 for a Lewandowski goal; that sounds like a cool robbery. The Polish striker has hit the net in every single game he’s played for Bayern Munich this season. He’s now up to 18 goals in 12 games.
I know it has to end at some point, Lewandowski’s run, but I don’t see it stopping yet if he plays against Union Berlin.