You know, it’s quite a tough task trying to get these value bets. One thing I realised after last week’s debut is that playing it safe is often the best option when it comes to betting on football games. But that wasn’t the only thing I learned. I also learned that if you take high risks, you could be rewarded abundantly, and outsmart the bookies is quite ridiculous ways.
So while one could have stuck with a simple Celtic win or a Juventus double chance, going for the Leganes Under 0.5 @3.15 seemed an easy but rewarding bet. Also, Barry Town beating Airbus UK Broughton @2.14 seemed pretty easy too. There are always value bets out there, and that’s why this column exists. It’s for those who want to take some calculated risks, and go all-in against the bookies.
So yeah, we go again this week. Like last week, there will be options to go safe. But who did going safe ever help? Huh?
Everton vs Sheffield: Everton Win @1.65
Everton haven’t been on fire as many expected at the start of the season. Their form has been inconsistent, to put mildly. But they do love a home win, don’t they? The Toffees have won their two home games this season and look a different side at Goodison Park…not just this season; that strong home form is being brought forward from last season.
Not only have Everton won their last six home Premier League matches, they’ve also been winning at half time and at full time in their last five home league matches.
Sheffield United come visiting on Saturday, with an Everton win put at a cool 1.65.
There’s a solid both teams to score odds @1.88. Seems good considering that The Blades have scored in both their away games in the Premier League this season [against Chelsea and Bournemouth], and seem to have a goal in them – win or lose.
Villarreal vs Real Valladolid: Under 2.5 goals @2.00
Who will be the greater influence?: Will it be a Villarreal side that are second top scorers in La Liga – and have a pretty shaky defence – or a Real Valladolid side that keep everything tight and don’t get involved in high scoring matches? What will it be?
Here are some stats on some of their recent meetings:
Villarreal have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 3 matches against Real Valladolid in all competitions.
Both games last season went under 2.5 as well, with Real Valladolid keeping a clean sheet both home and away.
Last three Real Valladolid games in La Liga? All under 2.5! This includes a 1-1 draw at Santiago Bernabeu against Real Madrid.
I’m leaning towards the Under 2.5 here @2.00, just because the recent history of this fixture suggests that it will be low scoring. Let’s hope La Liga topscorer Gerard Moreno doesn’t continue in his great form and score a truckload against Real Valladolid.
BONUS: I really thought of going back to Leganes again for some cheap odds, but the bookies have finally realised they were being mugged, offering 3.15 for the lowest-scoring team in La Liga to fire blanks. This week, you only get 1.96 for a Leganes under 0.5 against Valencia and a 1.13 for a Leganes Under 1.5.
Dear bookies, up your offer. You can do better.
Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05: Schalke win + Over 1.5 goals @ 2.05
This is one of those odds where you wonder if the bookies have something sinister on the horizon. Or are they just really dropping the ball here? Is there a chance they are setting us up for a massive fail? Shall we turn to some stats for succour? Thank you.
Mainz lose away from home. That’s what they do. They’ve lost 9 out of their last 10 away from home, and all their 3 in Bundesliga this season. The losses: 2-0, 3-0, and 6-1 [against Bayern Munich].
Mainz also concede a lot of goals away from home. They have shipped in at least 2 goals in 9 of their last 11 away matches in Bundesliga.
Schalke have lost heavily at home this season – against Bayern Munich – but what they don’t do often is lose to Mainz 05 at the VELTINS-Arena, where they’ve won their last five in all competitions against Friday’s visitors.
Everything points at a Schalke win, and if their recent home wins over Mainz – where there’s been over 1.5 in four of their last five – and Mainz’s wretched away form is anything to go by, then the win should come with goals.
Phew! Did I manage to convince you yet that 2.05 is a steal for a Schalke win + over 1.5?
AC Milan vs Inter Milan: Under 2.5 goals @1.75
If you are looking for goals, this may not be where to come for it.
AC Milan have scored just twice this season and have struggled on the offensive. But they’ve also been solid defensively, conceding just once in three games this season. Inter have been better offensively, with seven goals in three games, but their defence under Antonio Conte has been watertight as well, with just the single goal conceded in three games.
They have the two tightest defences in Serie A, and both feature in the bottom three for shots conceded this season.
AC Milan, in particular, have been involved in a lot of low scoring games lately, with five of their last six Serie A matches serving under 2.5 goals.
Did I mention yet that it is a derby and neither side wants to lose?
Don’t expect many goals. Take the 1.75 for the under 2.5 and run! Run as fast as you can.
Carmarthen Town AFC vs The New Saints FC: The New Saints + Over 1.5 goals @1.55
I know this column has been mostly about the stats. But what is sports betting without some superstition? The Welsh league proved a good pick last week, so it’s only smart we go ahead again, yeah?
This weekend, it’s the often formidable The New Saints – with the best attack in the league [17 goals] – against Carmarthen Town who have the third-worst defence so far [12 goals]. Carmarthen Town aren’t slack on the offensive front either, boasting the joint third-best offence in the league with nine goals.
The New Saints have won all of their last five meetings, with all the games seeing over 2.5 goals.
There seems to be a goal rush when both sides play, so I’m banking on that. Throw in a TNS win for good measure, and 1.55 doesn’t look bad at all. Take a punt on it.
BONUS: Sergio Aguero to score [vs Watford] @1.55
Win, loss or draw, Sergio Aguero has scored in every single Manchester City game this season. So tell me, why not? Why not back him to do it again against Watford.
The Argentine striker is well-rested, after sitting out the Citizens’ Champions League win over Shakhtar Donetsk in Ukraine, so I reckon he’ll be fresh enough and rearing to go.
As well, City will be looking to bounce back after last weekend’s loss to Norwich, and send a strong statement to Liverpool who play on Sunday.