Last weekend was a near perfect one. All calls – including the bonus of Aguero scoring at anytime against Watford – came through, except Everton winning against Sheffield Wednesday. On paper, that was the easiest of the calls. Not only did Everton lose, they also failed to score, so the both teams to score @1.88 also went to dust.
If last week taught me anything – just like the previous week – it reminded me to never be scared to go for bigger risks. Nothing is certain, and when it comes to sports betting, if you don’t get good deals, then you might as well forget it. And in honour of big risks, this weekend’s first game is a huge one…
The New Saints vs Barry Town: Barry Town Double Chance @3.30
Two weeks ago, we went big on Barry Town and it yielded results. The New Saints gave a scare too last weekend, failing 2-0 behind in a match we needed them to win, before coming back to beat Carmarthen 6-2. But I digress.
You see, The New Saints are the biggest side in Wales and have won the last eight titles. They are expected to win again this season, but Barry Town have started the season solidly, and look like they may push the perennial champions all the way. In case you didn’t know, Barry Town are also former champions. In fact, they were the first side to win the league for four consecutive seasons. But this is also irrelevant information.
Here’s information you need though. This is the biggest game this season. It’s first [Barry Town] vs second [The New Saints]. This is a game that could determine who wins the title – even though it’s early days. Barry Town haven’t lost a game this season and have the joint best defence in the league this season. The New Saints meanwhile, despite having a great attack [most goals in the this season – 23], have a terrible defence. They have conceded nine goals this season; only four teams – the bottom four in the league – have conceded more goals. The New Saints have conceded against everyone in the league so far – including Dick and Harry – and have only kept a clean sheet against Caernarfon; in the first game of the season.
A Barry Town goal is set @1.96 and you should definitely go for that. But what has Everton taught you, you chicken?
Sampdoria vs Inter Milan: Under 2.5 @2.04
Antonio Conte’s Inter Milan have been impressive so far this season. No, they haven’t blow teams off the park, but they’ve been solid defensively. With just a single goal conceded, they have by far the best defence in the league.
Inter Milan have kept a clean sheet in their last three Serie A games and all those games have ended with less than three goals. Indeed, if you include their Champions League game, it makes it four straight Under 2.5 games for Inter.
Four of the last five meetings between the Nerazzurri and their hosts on Saturday have seen less than three goals…Yet, the bookies have offered such generous odds for the under 2.5. They aren’t crazy though. They are probably banking on the fact that Sampdoria are bottom of the league, lost four of their five games this season, and have the leagues joint worst defence [11 goals conceded].
But I’m banking on Inter not pushing too hard – especially if they get going quickly – and just doing enough for the win, even more so as they have the Champions League coming soon.
Athletic Bilbao vs Valencia – Athletic Bilbao win @2.16
Valencia are searching for their soul and are currently in a place of confusion. On Wednesday, they threw away a 3-1 lead at home against Getafe to end the game 3-3. Only one win in six games this season. Of course, all isn’t well.
And now they face an Athletic Club side they haven’t beaten in the last eight away games at the San Mames. But Athletic Bilbao don’t reserve their great home form only for Valencia; it’s a form reserved for everyone. Indeed they haven’t lost any of their last 17 La Liga games at the San Mames. Athletic are difficult to beat at home – even Barcelona can testify to that.
The stats are damning for Valencia. Athletic haven’t even conceded a single goal in their last three home games, shutting out Barcelona, Real Sociedad, and Alaves. This doesn’t look like one Valencia will win.
But an Athletic Bilbao double chance is set at only 1.26, and that is just not good enough. If the theme of this week is going big, then it makes sense to go for the Athletic Bilbao win @2.16. It’s not crazy. No, it isn’t.
Borussia Dortmund vs Weder Bremen – Over 3.5 @1.78
There are goals in the horizon. Everything points towards that direction. Nothing hints at that as much as the miserly offer of 1.78 for a game with four goals.
You know what else points at that? It’s the stats. Four of the last six games between these two sides at the Signal Iduna Park have seen at least four goals. The other two peaked at three goals. Borussia Dortmund themselves have scored at least 2 goals in their last 19 home matches in Bundesliga, and their two home games this season have ended 5-1 and 4-0.
Werder have the third worst defence in the league [12 goals conceded in 5 games], and have been involved in some high scoring games themselves this season. Of their five games this season in Bundesliga, three have gone over 3.5; the other two, over 2.5.
Over 2.5 @1.30 would be a good call if you want to play it safe [you deserve to, if you’ve gone big in all three previous calls], but who really wants to play safe?
Everton vs Manchester City – Over 1.5 HT @2.07
I’m not going crazy. At least not yet. It’s a pretty risky call, this, but after Everton last weekend, I’ll rather just go through with it and round up with a bold call.
But as always, the stats come to my rescue. Sometimes, that’s all the trend you need to back a call like this. Manchester City have showed this season that not only do they have a desire to score a lot of goals [they are the Premier League’s topscorer with 24 goals], they also want to score them very quickly. Of all their games this season, only one – their first game of the season against West Ham – has not seen at least two first half goals. The other seven have.
And if there’s anything we learned from last week’s thrashing of Watford, Manchester City can score two in seven minutes! This time, we are hoping Everton get in the act too, not leaving all the load for Manchester City.
BONUS: Sergio Aguero to score at anytime [vs Everton] @1.83
Just because Sergio can’t stop scoring, you know?
But also remember the run has to stop at some point.